Here is the full English translation of your real estate market trends report for the United States (2024–2025):

U.S. Real Estate Market Trends Report (2024–2025

Residential Property Prices

    By the end of June 2025, the median home value in the U.S. reached approximately \$369,147, marking a modest 0.5% year-over-year increase. Overall, price growth has slowed across most major metropolitan areas. The S\&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index showed the highest annual increases in New York (+7.70%), Chicago (+6.96%), and Cleveland (+6.58%), while Tampa (FL) saw a slight decline (-1.46%). Here are sample annual price changes in key cities:

New York : +7.70%

Chicago (IL) : +6.96%

Cleveland (OH) : +6.58%

* **Dallas (TX) : +0.89%

* **Tampa (FL) : -1.46%

* **Los Angeles (CA) : +4.45%

* **San Francisco (CA) : +3.08%

    As of March 2025, the median price for existing homes was about \$403,700 (up 2.75% YoY), compared to \$403,600 for new homes (down 7.5% YoY). The gap between new and existing home prices is narrowing. Forecasts suggest a balanced pricing trend into 2025–2026, with expected Federal Reserve rate cuts supporting modest growth. For example, the Case-Shiller Index is projected to grow by \~3.6% in 2025 and \~3.3% in 2026.

    A chart tracking the average prices of new (blue) and existing (red) homes from 2016–2025 shows sharp increases through 2021–2022, then stabilization around the \$400K mark. Analysts expect moderate price gains through 2025–2026 as mortgage rates gradually ease.

Commercial Real Estate Prices

    The commercial sector shows wide disparities. Office space is under heavy pressure, with vacancy rates hitting a record high (\~13.8% mid-2024). This is due to negative net absorption, reducing rental prices and asset values. Industrial real estate has also softened, with vacancies rising to \~6.5% due to reduced demand for distribution centers.

    On the other hand, the retail sector remains relatively strong, with vacancies around 4.7%, keeping values stable or slightly elevated. Hospitality has stabilized, with hotel occupancy rates around 63%—just 3% below pre-pandemic levels—and daily rates exceeding those of 2020.

Supply, Demand & Occupancy Rates

    High interest rates have curbed existing home sales (down 2.4% YoY in March 2025), while new home sales rose (+6.0%) due to lower pricing and builder incentives. On the supply side, the market still faces a cumulative housing shortage of about 3.8 million units (as of 2024). New housing starts fell by 1.7% in May 2025 YoY, building permits dropped 3.2%, and completions declined 12.3%—reflecting a slowdown in new supply.

    Homeownership remains stable at about 65.1% in Q1 2025, while rental housing remains critical. The national rental vacancy rate was 7.1% (Q1 2025), historically low, indicating robust rental demand. Office vacancies stood at 13.8% in July 2024, with continued negative net absorption. In contrast, multifamily rentals saw a 90% YoY increase in net absorption, with vacancy holding near 8%. Retail space retained high occupancy (\~96%).

    A net absorption chart for office space from 2021 to 2024 shows persistent negative trends. By Q3 2024, the total vacant office space had risen to 44 million square feet, highlighting the structural oversupply and pricing pressure in this sector.

Interest Rates and Policy Impact

    Federal policy has heavily influenced the market. The Fed's benchmark rate remained in the 4.25–4.50% range in 2025, raising mortgage rates to \~6.8% (30-year fixed), hurting affordability. Many analysts say recovery is unlikely unless mortgage rates drop closer to 5%.

    Meanwhile, new import tariffs raised building material costs and reduced developer confidence. Analysts note these tariffs and cost hikes have “weakened builder sentiment,” slowing construction activity. Overall, unless rate pressures ease, pricing may stagnate or soften slightly in 2025–2026.

Rental vs. Homeownership Markets

    The rental market continues to grow moderately, driven by demand. The Consumer Price Index for rent (CPI) showed a 4.0% YoY increase in April 2025. Zillow’s rent index rose 3.4% YoY. Single-family rentals grew faster (4.0%) than multifamily (2.9%), showing stronger momentum in private housing. Rental vacancy remained low at 7.1% (Q1 2025), supporting demand strength.

    Meanwhile, homeownership struggles persist due to high prices and mortgage rates, keeping the ownership rate around 65.1%. As a result, more people are turning to renting, creating a divergence: rental demand grows amid affordability issues, while the buying market stagnates.

Major Ongoing Development Projects

Several major mixed-use developments are reshaping the real estate landscape:

- One Congress (Boston)**: 43-story office tower, 1M sq. ft., in Bulfinch Crossing.

- Sports & Entertainment District (Orlando, FL)**: 8.5-acre site next to Amway Center with a 260-room hotel, 270 luxury apartments, live theater, and \~900,000 sq. ft. of retail/office space.

- Oncor Distribution Center (TX)**: 422,000 sq. ft. high-ceiling logistics warehouse near Dallas.

- Studio Crossing (Park City, UT)**: 320,000 sq. ft. mixed-use project with 208 affordable housing units, market-rate apartments, retail, park space, and a transit station.

    Additional large-scale projects are underway in California, Texas, and other regions—ranging from luxury housing to health campuses and major infrastructure—reshaping urban growth patterns.

Outlook Through 2026: Risks, Opportunities & Forecasts

    Analysts expect a continued slowdown in price growth and tight credit conditions through 2025–2026. On the opportunity side, RCLCO forecasts strong rental demand, supporting potential rent increases by 2026. Even in a mild recession, supply and demand shifts are expected to be moderate, avoiding steep price drops.

    However, risks remain: persistently high interest rates could further strain buyers, and additional tariffs may raise construction costs. Political and social uncertainties—like immigration policy—may also affect population growth and housing demand. With immigrants forming a significant part of the labor force, changes could reduce housing supply and demand.

    Despite these risks, rental investments and supply-focused developments (e.g., affordable housing) remain promising—especially if monetary policies stabilize and liquidity improves. Overall, the market is expected to remain near equilibrium in 2025–2026, with moderate price growth and selective development opportunities.